FOR ALL THE MARBLES

It’s coming right down to the wire. The entire season for the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins comes down to this. The Tigers are 2 games up with 7 left to play and the Tigers and Twins square off for a 4 game series starting with a day – night double header today because of yesterday’s rainout. Here are the pitching match-ups:

Game # 1 – Nick Blackburn vs. Rick Porcello
Game # 2 - Brian Duensing vs. Justin Verlander
Game # 3 - Carl Pavano vs. Eddie Bonine
Game # 4 - Scott Baker vs. Nate Robertson

The Tigers last 3 games are against the White Sox:

Game # 5 - Freddy Garcia vs. Edwin Jackson
Game # 6 - Daniel Hudson vs. Rick Porcello
Game # 7 - John Danks vs. Justin Verlander

The Twins last 3 games are against the Royals:

Game # 5 - Lenny DiNardo vs. Francisco Liriano
Game # 6 - Zack Greinke vs. Nick Blackburn
Game # 7 - Luke Hochevar vs. Brian Duensing

At 1st thought you would think the Twins have it easier playing the Royals but one of those games is against Zack Greinke who will be focused on “putting on a show” to lock down the Cy Young award.

If the Twins take 3 of 4, this one could be decided on the last day………

Did anyone notice that the Braves have won their last 7 games? The Braves have quietly closed to within 2 games of Colorado for the Wild Card and within 4 games of the Phillies for the division. - David Fry

David Fry is an independent sports photographer currently covering Major League Baseball. David will be reporting on observations as he sees them in MLB stadiums throughout the year.

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Get ahead in the count

I’ve come across some interesting statistics about pitching. We knew that the key to success at the professional level (or at any level for that matter) is to get ahead in the count. But I’m not sure that we knew how dramatic the benefits of getting ahead in the count are.

Statistics show the deck is stacked against major league hitters when they have two strikes, as they have a .186 two-strike average in 2009.

Facing Giants ace Tim Lincecum with two strikes almost guarantees a one-way ticket to the bench. Hitters are batting just .106 (33-for-312) against him, and that’s the lowest two-strike mark allowed by a starter who has faced at least 100 batters with two strikes.

Lincecum’s success in two-strike scenarios is remarkable, as only Detroit’s Justin Verlander has faced more hitters with two strikes in 2009. The Tigers ace has recorded two strikes 379 times, compared to 330 for Lincecum. In those situations, Verlander has limited hitters to a .169 average (60-for-354).

After Verlander and Lincecum, next in garnering the most two-strike situations are Atlanta’s Javier Vazquez and Johan Santana of the Mets, both with 328 batters faced. Vazquez has held those hitters to a .157 mark (49-for-312), while Santana has a .164 opponent batting average (50-for-305).

Retiring hitters after getting ahead in the count is a ticket to success as a reliever too, and the Angels’ 30-year-old rookie, Jason Bulger, has done that in his first lengthy stint in the majors. Another rookie, San Diego’s Luke Gregerson, has been downright dominant after struggling in April. - David Fry

David Fry is an independent sports photographer currently covering Major League Baseball. David will be reporting on observations as he sees them in MLB stadiums throughout the year.